Monday, March 06, 2006

Numbers Don't Lie

Here's the new CBS4/SurveyUSA Poll. Blue Mass Group has a good general breakdown of the numbers, although I'd beg to differ on their lumping of AG Reilly and Patrick together. Like I've said before, and we're all entitled to our opinions, but it seems to me that the Reilly ship has been righted, and these numbers would bear that out. AG Reilly beats LG Healey by 5% and Mr. Patrick loses to LG Healey by 5% (although I think we'd all agree that Mihos numbers will come down, specifically as he continues to open his mouth and insert his foot). Thats a 10% swing, no matter how you cut it.

There were a couple of numbers within the polling that are extremely interesting, with implications for both the Democratic primary and the general. First, with AG Reilly wins 54% of the African American vote in the general, while Deval Patrick wins only 46%. This suggests the AG has been able to garner support in a community that was supposed to be a strength for Mr. Patrick (admittedly, it is not a comparison of how African American voters would act in the Democratic primary, but it is still informative for the general election prospects of the candidates). Second, in both scenarios Independent voters favor LG Healey, but the difference between Healey and Reilly is only 3% (32-29), as opposed to the 16% (35-19) difference between Healey and Patrick. In both cases, Mihos wins 28% of the Independent vote. Finally, when broken down based on ideology, AG Reilly defeats Mr. Patrick in all categories (conservative, moderate, and note sure) accept for voters who identify themselves as "liberal" and in this case Mr. Patrick only wins by 1% (49-48).

Overall the poll is good news for the Reilly Campaign, should be somewhat troubling (although by no means alarming) to the Patrick campaign, and Christy Mihos should enjoy it while he can and before people realize just who he is and what he stands for. As for Lt. Gov. Healey, she might want to tell the current Chairman of the RGA to focus on the race in his "home state," otherwise it could get ugly for the Republican Party real fast.

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