Irrational Exuberance

In a recent poll concerning Massachusetts' 2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary, one candidate was supported by 39% of voters, one was supported by 30%, and 31% of Democratic voters were as yet undecided. The poll raised a few eyebrows and for good reason. The frontrunner dropped by 19% and his challenger jumped up 12%.

So, what does it all mean? Well, we're about a week removed from the LG/tax/financial mess and AG Reilly is still, yes still, 9% ahead of Deval Patrick. Imagine a worse month for the Reilly Campaign. Can't do it? Neither can I. But here's the flip side, imagine a better month for Deval Patrick to make inroads. Imagine a month where he could have had everything break his way. Can't do that either? I thought so. This is informative. Prior to the St. Fleur mess, 24% of Democratic voters were undecided, after the incident, 31% were undecided. This means that not only did a 19% drop for Reilly only equate to a 12% bump for Patrick, but it also meant that the original 24% either paid no mind to the mess, felt it didn't matter, or didn't think it mattered enough for them to choose to support Mr. Patrick.

Before others raise their dissent, as I am sure they will, let me say that I am in no way arguing that bad news of weeks past is not pertinent, salient, or in anyway "good" for AG Reilly's prospects, but I am saying that maybe, just maybe, Mr. Patrick's supporters were making a little much of it. Yes, Mr. Patrick did do better than AG Reilly in the caucuses, but the 35,000 participants in the town and city caucuses make up (and someone correct me if my numbers are off here) roughly 5% of voters in the Democratic primary (based on 2002 turn out). So before we write candidates off, claim candidates are flawed, or make prognostications that would make the Bush budget seem modest, lets take a step back and see the whole picture. It's a long way to September, let alone November.